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Pisa vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ascoli
Ascoli
12/8/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 16Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Pisa48%
×Draw26%
Ascoli27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.51
Ascoli
1.06

Pisa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 114 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.52
Ascoli
1.08

allows per match

Pisa
1.03
Ascoli
1.50

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
73%
Pisa or Ascoli
74%
Draw or Ascoli
52%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
24%
Ascoli wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
78%
Pisa 2+ goals
44%
Pisa 3+ goals
19%
Ascoli 1+ goals
65%
Ascoli 2+ goals
29%
Ascoli 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
64%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.03 · 115 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.52 + Ascoli defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ascoli attack 1.08 + Pisa defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pisa scores more
48%
level
26%
Ascoli scores more
27%

Pisa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pisa 2 – 0 Ascoli

Pisa beat Ascoli 2-0 in Serie B on December 8, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.