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Pisa U19 vs Viterbese Castrense U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pisa U19
Pisa U19
FT
3 – 0
Viterbese Castrense U19
Viterbese Castrense U19
12/3/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 11Campo Sportivo San Cataldo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pisa U1961%
×Draw22%
Viterbese Castrense U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa U19
1.86
Viterbese Castrense U19
0.84

Pisa U19 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pisa U19
1.73
Viterbese Castrense U19
0.80

allows per match

Pisa U19
0.89
Viterbese Castrense U19
2.00

finishing

Pisa U19+0.00on par
Viterbese Castrense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa U19 ↓

Viterbese Castrense U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pisa U19 or draw
84%
Pisa U19 or Viterbese Castrense U19
78%
Draw or Viterbese Castrense U19
39%

Winning margin

Pisa U19 wins by 2+
36%
Viterbese Castrense U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pisa U19 1+ goals
84%
Pisa U19 2+ goals
55%
Pisa U19 3+ goals
28%
Viterbese Castrense U19 1+ goals
57%
Viterbese Castrense U19 2+ goals
21%
Viterbese Castrense U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pisa U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Viterbese Castrense U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Viterbese Castrense U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa U19 attack 1.73 + Viterbese Castrense U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Viterbese Castrense U19 attack 0.80 + Pisa U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pisa U19 scores more
61%
level
22%
Viterbese Castrense U19 scores more
16%

Pisa U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pisa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Pisa U19 3–0 Viterbese Castrense U19

Pisa U19 beat Viterbese Castrense U19 3-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo San Cataldo in Pisa.