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Pisa U19 vs Ternana U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pisa U19
Pisa U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ternana U19
Ternana U19
11/8/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Pisa U1958%
×Draw23%
Ternana U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa U19
1.81
Ternana U19
0.92

Pisa U19 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 72 away

creates per match

Pisa U19
1.73
Ternana U19
0.94

allows per match

Pisa U19
0.89
Ternana U19
1.90

finishing

Pisa U19+0.00on par
Ternana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa U19 ↓

Ternana U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pisa U19 or draw
81%
Pisa U19 or Ternana U19
77%
Draw or Ternana U19
42%

Winning margin

Pisa U19 wins by 2+
33%
Ternana U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pisa U19 1+ goals
84%
Pisa U19 2+ goals
54%
Pisa U19 3+ goals
27%
Ternana U19 1+ goals
60%
Ternana U19 2+ goals
23%
Ternana U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pisa U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Ternana U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Ternana U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.90 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa U19 attack 1.73 + Ternana U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ternana U19 attack 0.94 + Pisa U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pisa U19 scores more
58%
level
23%
Ternana U19 scores more
19%

Pisa U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pisa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Pisa U19 1–2 Ternana U19

Ternana U19 beat Pisa U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 8, 2025.