Pisa U19 2–1 Perugia U19: Result & Stats

Pisa U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Perugia U19

4/25/2026

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Pisa U1955%

×Draw23%

Perugia U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pisa U19Expected goals in this matchPerugia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.03

Pisa U19

1.80

Perugia U19

1.03

Pisa U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 73 away

1.73

creates per match

1.18

0.89

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Pisa U19

1.73

Perugia U19

1.18

allows per match

Pisa U19

0.89

Perugia U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pisa U19+0.00on par

Perugia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa U19 ↓

Perugia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pisa U19 or draw

78%

Pisa U19 or Perugia U19

77%

Draw or Perugia U19

45%

Winning margin

Pisa U19 wins by 2+

31%

Perugia U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pisa U19 1+ goals

83%

Pisa U19 2+ goals

54%

Pisa U19 3+ goals

27%

Perugia U19 1+ goals

64%

Perugia U19 2+ goals

28%

Perugia U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pisa U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Perugia U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Perugia U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa U19 attack 1.73 + Perugia U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

Perugia U19 attack 1.18 + Pisa U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pisa U19 scores more

55%

level

23%

Perugia U19 scores more

22%

Pisa U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pisa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff