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Pisa U19 vs Napoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pisa U19
Pisa U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Napoli U19
Napoli U19
11/30/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 10Stadio Comunale Alfredo Pagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Pisa U1943%
×Draw25%
Napoli U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa U19
1.52
Napoli U19
1.29

Pisa U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 42 away

creates per match

Pisa U19
1.73
Napoli U19
1.69

allows per match

Pisa U19
0.89
Napoli U19
1.31

finishing

Pisa U19+0.00on par
Napoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa U19 ↓

Napoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pisa U19 or draw
68%
Pisa U19 or Napoli U19
75%
Draw or Napoli U19
57%

Winning margin

Pisa U19 wins by 2+
21%
Napoli U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pisa U19 1+ goals
78%
Pisa U19 2+ goals
45%
Pisa U19 3+ goals
20%
Napoli U19 1+ goals
72%
Napoli U19 2+ goals
37%
Napoli U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pisa U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Napoli U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Napoli U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa U19 attack 1.73 + Napoli U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Napoli U19 attack 1.69 + Pisa U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pisa U19 scores more
43%
level
25%
Napoli U19 scores more
32%

Pisa U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pisa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Pisa U19 1–2 Napoli U19

Napoli U19 beat Pisa U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Pagni in Peccioli.