Pisa U19 4–1 Monopoli U19: Result & Stats

Pisa U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Monopoli U19

12/6/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Pisa U1959%

×Draw22%

Monopoli U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pisa U19Expected goals in this matchMonopoli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.00

Pisa U19

1.94

Monopoli U19

1.00

Pisa U19 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 61 away

1.73

creates per match

1.11

0.89

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Pisa U19

1.73

Monopoli U19

1.11

allows per match

Pisa U19

0.89

Monopoli U19

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pisa U19+0.00on par

Monopoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa U19 ↓

Monopoli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pisa U19 or draw

81%

Pisa U19 or Monopoli U19

78%

Draw or Monopoli U19

41%

Winning margin

Pisa U19 wins by 2+

35%

Monopoli U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pisa U19 1+ goals

86%

Pisa U19 2+ goals

58%

Pisa U19 3+ goals

30%

Monopoli U19 1+ goals

63%

Monopoli U19 2+ goals

26%

Monopoli U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pisa U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Monopoli U19 away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa U19 attack 1.73 + Monopoli U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.94

Monopoli U19 attack 1.11 + Pisa U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pisa U19 scores more

59%

level

22%

Monopoli U19 scores more

19%

Pisa U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pisa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff