Pisa U19 0–1 Lazio U19: Result & Stats

Pisa U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lazio U19

11/5/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 8Campo Sportivo San Cataldo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pisa U1938%

×Draw25%

Lazio U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pisa U19Expected goals in this matchLazio U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.43

Pisa U19

1.47

Lazio U19

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 29 away

1.73

creates per match

1.97

0.89

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Pisa U19

1.73

Lazio U19

1.97

allows per match

Pisa U19

0.89

Lazio U19

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pisa U19+0.00on par

Lazio U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa U19 ↓

Lazio U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pisa U19 or draw

63%

Pisa U19 or Lazio U19

75%

Draw or Lazio U19

62%

Winning margin

Pisa U19 wins by 2+

18%

Lazio U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pisa U19 1+ goals

77%

Pisa U19 2+ goals

43%

Pisa U19 3+ goals

18%

Lazio U19 1+ goals

76%

Lazio U19 2+ goals

42%

Lazio U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pisa U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Lazio U19 away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa U19 attack 1.73 + Lazio U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.47

Lazio U19 attack 1.97 + Pisa U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pisa U19 scores more

38%

level

25%

Lazio U19 scores more

37%

Pisa U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pisa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff