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Pisa U19 vs Crotone U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pisa U19
Pisa U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Crotone U19
Crotone U19
10/3/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Pisa U1961%
×Draw21%
Crotone U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa U19
2.04
Crotone U19
1.01

Pisa U19 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 85 away

creates per match

Pisa U19
1.73
Crotone U19
1.14

allows per match

Pisa U19
0.89
Crotone U19
2.34

finishing

Pisa U19+0.00on par
Crotone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa U19 ↓

Crotone U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pisa U19 or draw
82%
Pisa U19 or Crotone U19
79%
Draw or Crotone U19
39%

Winning margin

Pisa U19 wins by 2+
37%
Crotone U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pisa U19 1+ goals
87%
Pisa U19 2+ goals
60%
Pisa U19 3+ goals
33%
Crotone U19 1+ goals
64%
Crotone U19 2+ goals
27%
Crotone U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pisa U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Crotone U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Crotone U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa U19 attack 1.73 + Crotone U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.04

Crotone U19 attack 1.14 + Pisa U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pisa U19 scores more
61%
level
21%
Crotone U19 scores more
18%

Pisa U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pisa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pisa U19 vs Crotone U19

Pisa U19 beat Crotone U19 4-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on October 3, 2025.