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Pisa U19 vs Cosenza U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pisa U19
Pisa U19
FT
1 – 0
Cosenza U19
Cosenza U19
11/11/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 8Stadio Comunale Carlo Necchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Pisa U1951%
×Draw25%
Cosenza U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa U19
1.65
Cosenza U19
1.05

Pisa U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Pisa U19
1.73
Cosenza U19
1.21

allows per match

Pisa U19
0.89
Cosenza U19
1.57

finishing

Pisa U19+0.00on par
Cosenza U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa U19 ↓

Cosenza U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pisa U19 or draw
76%
Pisa U19 or Cosenza U19
75%
Draw or Cosenza U19
49%

Winning margin

Pisa U19 wins by 2+
27%
Cosenza U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pisa U19 1+ goals
81%
Pisa U19 2+ goals
49%
Pisa U19 3+ goals
23%
Cosenza U19 1+ goals
65%
Cosenza U19 2+ goals
28%
Cosenza U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pisa U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Cosenza U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Cosenza U19 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa U19 attack 1.73 + Cosenza U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cosenza U19 attack 1.21 + Pisa U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pisa U19 scores more
51%
level
25%
Cosenza U19 scores more
24%

Pisa U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pisa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pisa U19 vs Cosenza U19

Pisa U19 beat Cosenza U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Carlo Necchi in Forte dei Marmi.