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Cosenza U19 vs Pisa U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cosenza U19
Cosenza U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pisa U19
Pisa U19
2/18/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 19Stadio Romolo di Magro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Cosenza U1940%
×Draw24%
Pisa U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosenza U19
1.54
Pisa U19
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

creates per match

Cosenza U19
1.36
Pisa U19
1.40

allows per match

Cosenza U19
1.47
Pisa U19
1.71

finishing

Cosenza U19+0.00on par
Pisa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosenza U19 ↓

Pisa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cosenza U19 or draw
64%
Cosenza U19 or Pisa U19
76%
Draw or Pisa U19
60%

Winning margin

Cosenza U19 wins by 2+
20%
Pisa U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cosenza U19 1+ goals
79%
Cosenza U19 2+ goals
45%
Cosenza U19 3+ goals
20%
Pisa U19 1+ goals
76%
Pisa U19 2+ goals
42%
Pisa U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cosenza U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Pisa U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosenza U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 83 matches

Pisa U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosenza U19 attack 1.36 + Pisa U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pisa U19 attack 1.40 + Cosenza U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cosenza U19 scores more
40%
level
24%
Pisa U19 scores more
36%

Cosenza U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cosenza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Cosenza U19 1–1 Pisa U19

Cosenza U19 and Pisa U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Romolo di Magro in Taverna.