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Pisa U19 vs Brescia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pisa U19
Pisa U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brescia U19
Brescia U19advanced
5/7/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Promotion Play-offs - Quarter-finalsCampo Sportivo San Cataldo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Pisa U1949%
×Draw23%
Brescia U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa U19
1.76
Brescia U19
1.25

Pisa U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 85 away

creates per match

Pisa U19
1.73
Brescia U19
1.61

allows per match

Pisa U19
0.89
Brescia U19
1.79

finishing

Pisa U19+0.00on par
Brescia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa U19 ↓

Brescia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pisa U19 or draw
73%
Pisa U19 or Brescia U19
77%
Draw or Brescia U19
51%

Winning margin

Pisa U19 wins by 2+
27%
Brescia U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pisa U19 1+ goals
83%
Pisa U19 2+ goals
52%
Pisa U19 3+ goals
26%
Brescia U19 1+ goals
71%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
36%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pisa U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa U19 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Brescia U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa U19 attack 1.73 + Brescia U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.76

Brescia U19 attack 1.61 + Pisa U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pisa U19 scores more
49%
level
23%
Brescia U19 scores more
27%

Pisa U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pisa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pisa U19 vs Brescia U19

Brescia U19 beat Pisa U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo San Cataldo in Pisa.