Pirmasens 2–5 FC 08 Homburg: Result & Stats

Pirmasens

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 1

FC 08 Homburg

M. Ehrhart 21'

D. Krob 5'

M. Mendler 74', 57'

D. Hummel 69'

N. Jorg 64'

M. Dombrowka 29'

2/8/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Zweibrücken TSC Rasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pirmasens30%

×Draw19%

FC 08 Homburg52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PirmasensExpected goals in this matchFC 08 Homburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

2.66

Pirmasens

2.02

FC 08 Homburg

2.66

FC 08 Homburg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

2.40

creates per match

2.71

2.60

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Pirmasens

2.40

FC 08 Homburg

2.71

allows per match

Pirmasens

2.60

FC 08 Homburg

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirmasens+0.00on par

FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirmasens ↓

FC 08 Homburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Pirmasens or draw

48%

Pirmasens or FC 08 Homburg

81%

Draw or FC 08 Homburg

70%

Winning margin

Pirmasens wins by 2+

15%

FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Pirmasens 1+ goals

87%

Pirmasens 2+ goals

60%

Pirmasens 3+ goals

33%

FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals

93%

FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals

74%

FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Pirmasens (draw refunded)

37%

FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirmasens at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

FC 08 Homburg away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirmasens attack 2.40 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.02

FC 08 Homburg attack 2.71 + Pirmasens defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pirmasens scores more

30%

level

19%

FC 08 Homburg scores more

52%

FC 08 Homburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC 08 Homburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

21'

29'

57'

64'

69'

74'

Pirmasens

FC

Manager: Daniel Paulus

Manager: Roland Seitz