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Pirmasens vs Bitburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Pirmasens
Pirmasens
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bitburg
Bitburg
8/15/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 5Sportpark Husterhöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pirmasens76%
×Draw14%
Bitburg10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirmasens
3.03
Bitburg
1.05

Pirmasens creates 189% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pirmasens
2.95
Bitburg
1.21

allows per match

Pirmasens
0.90
Bitburg
3.11

finishing

Pirmasens+0.00on par
Bitburg+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirmasens ↓

Bitburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Pirmasens or draw
90%
Pirmasens or Bitburg
86%
Draw or Bitburg
24%

Winning margin

Pirmasens wins by 2+
56%
Bitburg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pirmasens 1+ goals
95%
Pirmasens 2+ goals
80%
Pirmasens 3+ goals
57%
Bitburg 1+ goals
65%
Bitburg 2+ goals
28%
Bitburg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pirmasens (draw refunded)
88%
Bitburg (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirmasens at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.90 · 63 matches

Bitburg away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirmasens attack 2.95 + Bitburg defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 3.03

Bitburg attack 1.21 + Pirmasens defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Pirmasens scores more
76%
level
14%
Bitburg scores more
10%

Pirmasens at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Pirmasens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirmasens vs Bitburg

Pirmasens beat Bitburg 4-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Husterhöhe in Pirmasens.