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Pirin Razlog vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
FT
2 – 1
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
2/24/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 21Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Pirin Razlog48%
×Draw24%
Slavia Sofia II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Razlog
1.67
Slavia Sofia II
1.22

Pirin Razlog creates 37% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 70 away

creates per match

Pirin Razlog
1.35
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

Pirin Razlog
1.11
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw
72%
Pirin Razlog or Slavia Sofia II
76%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
52%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
25%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
81%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
50%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
23%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
70%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
34%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
63%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.67

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more
48%
level
24%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
28%

Pirin Razlog at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Razlog 2–1 Slavia Sofia II

Pirin Razlog beat Slavia Sofia II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Razlog.