Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pirin Razlog vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
FT
1 – 1
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
3/23/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 25Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Pirin Razlog55%
×Draw23%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Razlog
1.86
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.10

Pirin Razlog creates 69% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 78 away

creates per match

Pirin Razlog
1.35
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Pirin Razlog
1.11
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw
78%
Pirin Razlog or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
77%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
45%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
31%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
84%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
55%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
28%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
67%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
30%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
71%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.86

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more
55%
level
23%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
22%

Pirin Razlog at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Razlog 1–1 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Pirin Razlog and Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Razlog.