Pirin Razlog 0–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Pirin Razlog

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

4/29/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 7Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Razlog47%

×Draw25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin RazlogExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.16

Pirin Razlog

1.57

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.16

Pirin Razlog creates 35% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 52 away

1.35

creates per match

1.21

1.11

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Pirin Razlog

1.35

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.21

allows per match

Pirin Razlog

1.11

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw

72%

Pirin Razlog or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

75%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

53%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+

24%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals

79%

Pirin Razlog 2+ goals

46%

Pirin Razlog 3+ goals

21%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

69%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

32%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)

62%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more

47%

level

25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

28%

Pirin Razlog at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff