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Pirin Razlog vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
FT
0 – 0
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
5/23/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 33Stadion Septemvri (Razlog)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Pirin Razlog37%
×Draw26%
Chavdar Etropole37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Razlog
1.35
Chavdar Etropole
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 87 away

creates per match

Pirin Razlog
1.35
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Pirin Razlog
1.11
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw
63%
Pirin Razlog or Chavdar Etropole
74%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
63%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
17%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
74%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
39%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
15%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
74%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
38%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
51%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more
37%
level
26%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
37%

Pirin Razlog at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Razlog vs Chavdar Etropole

Pirin Razlog and Chavdar Etropole drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri (Razlog).