Chavdar Etropole 0–0 Pirin Razlog: Result & Stats

Chavdar Etropole

FT

0 – 0

Pirin Razlog

10/9/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 12Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Chavdar Etropole59%

×Draw23%

Pirin Razlog18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chavdar EtropoleExpected goals in this matchPirin Razlog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.91

Chavdar Etropole

1.83

Pirin Razlog

0.91

Chavdar Etropole creates 101% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 131 away

2.08

creates per match

0.98

0.84

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole

2.08

Pirin Razlog

0.98

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole

0.84

Pirin Razlog

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Pirin Razlog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw

82%

Chavdar Etropole or Pirin Razlog

77%

Draw or Pirin Razlog

41%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

34%

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

84%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

54%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

28%

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals

60%

Pirin Razlog 2+ goals

23%

Pirin Razlog 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

76%

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more

59%

level

23%

Pirin Razlog scores more

18%

Chavdar Etropole at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff