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Pirin Gotse Delchev vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
9/21/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 10Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev61%
×Draw21%
Granit Vladaya18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Gotse Delchev
2.01
Granit Vladaya
0.98

Pirin Gotse Delchev creates 105% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 70 away

creates per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.40
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.22
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Gotse Delchev ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pirin Gotse Delchev or draw
82%
Pirin Gotse Delchev or Granit Vladaya
79%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
39%

Winning margin

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
37%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
87%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
59%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
32%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
62%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
26%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
77%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Gotse Delchev at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 88 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.40 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.01

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
61%
level
21%
Granit Vladaya scores more
18%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Gotse Delchev vs Granit Vladaya

Pirin Gotse Delchev beat Granit Vladaya 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Gotse Delchev.