Pirin Gotse Delchev 4–2 Chavdar Etropole

Pirin Gotse Delchev

FT

4 – 2

Chavdar Etropole

2/27/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev37%

×Draw26%

Chavdar Etropole38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin Gotse DelchevExpected goals in this matchChavdar Etropole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.39

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.37

Chavdar Etropole

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

1.40

creates per match

1.55

1.22

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.40

Chavdar Etropole

1.55

allows per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev

1.22

Chavdar Etropole

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Gotse Delchev ↓

Chavdar Etropole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pirin Gotse Delchev or draw

62%

Pirin Gotse Delchev or Chavdar Etropole

74%

Draw or Chavdar Etropole

63%

Winning margin

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+

17%

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals

75%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals

40%

Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals

16%

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

75%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

40%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)

49%

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Gotse Delchev at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 88 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.40 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more

37%

level

26%

Chavdar Etropole scores more

38%

Chavdar Etropole at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff