Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–1 Lokomotiv Sofia

Pirin Blagoevgrad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv Sofia

9/17/2022

First League · Round 11Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad41%

×Draw27%

Lokomotiv Sofia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin BlagoevgradExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.18

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.36

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.18

Pirin Blagoevgrad creates 15% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 88 away

1.13

creates per match

0.98

1.38

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.13

Lokomotiv Sofia

0.98

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.38

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Lokomotiv Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw

68%

Pirin Blagoevgrad or Lokomotiv Sofia

73%

Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia

59%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

19%

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

74%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

39%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

16%

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

69%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

33%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

56%

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.60 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 0.98 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

41%

level

27%

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

32%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–1 Lokomotiv Sofia

Lokomotiv Sofia beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 1-0 in First League on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Blagoevgrad.

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Lokomotiv Sofia — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

First League: Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–1 Lokomotiv Sofia