Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–1 CSKA Sofia II: Result & Stats

Pirin Blagoevgrad

FT

0 – 1

CSKA Sofia II

1/30/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad31%

×Draw28%

CSKA Sofia II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin BlagoevgradExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.27

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.08

CSKA Sofia II

1.27

CSKA Sofia II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.17

creates per match

1.20

1.33

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

2.17

CSKA Sofia II

1.20

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.33

CSKA Sofia II

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

CSKA Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw

59%

Pirin Blagoevgrad or CSKA Sofia II

72%

Draw or CSKA Sofia II

69%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

12%

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

66%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

29%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

10%

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

72%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

36%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

44%

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 2.17 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.20 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

31%

level

28%

CSKA Sofia II scores more

41%

CSKA Sofia II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff