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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Botev Plovdiv — First League 2026

Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
5/4/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad37%
×Draw27%
Botev Plovdiv35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.25
Botev Plovdiv
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 136 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.13
Botev Plovdiv
1.05

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.38
Botev Plovdiv
1.38

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Botev Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw
65%
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Botev Plovdiv
73%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv
63%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
16%
Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
71%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
36%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
13%
Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
70%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
34%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
51%
Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.38 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.05 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
37%
level
27%
Botev Plovdiv scores more
35%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Botev Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 4-2 in First League on May 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Blagoevgrad.