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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Beroe — First League 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Beroe
Beroe
8/2/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad39%
×Draw27%
Beroe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.29
Beroe
1.16

Pirin Blagoevgrad creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 138 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.13
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.38
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw
67%
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Beroe
73%
Draw or Beroe
61%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
18%
Beroe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
72%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
37%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
14%
Beroe 1+ goals
69%
Beroe 2+ goals
32%
Beroe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
54%
Beroe (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Beroe attack 0.93 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
39%
level
27%
Beroe scores more
33%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Beroe

Beroe beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 3-2 in First League on August 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Blagoevgrad.