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Beroe vs Pirin Blagoevgrad — First League 2018

Beroe
Beroe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
4/30/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Beroe48%
×Draw28%
Pirin Blagoevgrad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe
1.32
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.85

Beroe creates 55% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 51 away

creates per match

Beroe
1.22
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.69

allows per match

Beroe
1.01
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.43

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Beroe or draw
76%
Beroe or Pirin Blagoevgrad
72%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad
52%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+
22%
Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals
73%
Beroe 2+ goals
38%
Beroe 3+ goals
15%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
57%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
21%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)
66%
Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.22 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 0.69 + Beroe defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Beroe scores more
48%
level
28%
Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
24%

Beroe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Beroe 1–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad

Beroe beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 1-0 in First League on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Beroe in Stara Zagora.