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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Arda Kardzhali — Second League 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
3/2/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 19Stadion Hristo Botev (Blagoevgrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad36%
×Draw27%
Arda Kardzhali37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.20
Arda Kardzhali
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.53
Arda Kardzhali
1.27

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.18
Arda Kardzhali
0.87

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw
63%
Pirin Blagoevgrad or Arda Kardzhali
73%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
64%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
15%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
70%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
34%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
12%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
71%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
35%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
49%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.53 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.20

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.27 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
36%
level
27%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
37%

Arda Kardzhali at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Pirin Blagoevgrad 0–0 Arda Kardzhali

Pirin Blagoevgrad and Arda Kardzhali drew 0-0 in Second League on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev (Blagoevgrad).