Arda Kardzhali 0–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad

Arda Kardzhali

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pirin Blagoevgrad

3/4/2024

First League · Round 23Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Arda Kardzhali50%

×Draw27%

Pirin Blagoevgrad24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.90

Arda Kardzhali

1.44

Pirin Blagoevgrad

0.90

Arda Kardzhali creates 60% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

1.45

creates per match

0.69

1.11

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.45

Pirin Blagoevgrad

0.69

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.11

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

76%

Arda Kardzhali or Pirin Blagoevgrad

73%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad

50%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

25%

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

76%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

42%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

18%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

59%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

23%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

68%

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 0.69 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

50%

level

27%

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

24%

Arda Kardzhali at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff