Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
FT
3 – 1
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
6/4/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 38Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II34%
×Draw25%
Septemvri Sofia II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.36
Septemvri Sofia II
1.54

Septemvri Sofia II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 88 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.89
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.89
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw
58%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Septemvri Sofia II
75%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
66%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
15%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
74%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
39%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
16%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
79%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
45%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
45%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.36

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
34%
level
25%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
42%

Septemvri Sofia II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3–1 Septemvri Sofia II

Pirin Blagoevgrad II beat Septemvri Sofia II 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rila in Rila.