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Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
FT
3 – 0
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
3/5/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 22Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II61%
×Draw19%
Levski Chepintsi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.33
Levski Chepintsi
1.25

Pirin Blagoevgrad II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.89
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.89
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw
80%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Levski Chepintsi
81%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
39%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
39%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
90%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
67%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
41%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
71%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
36%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
76%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.33

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
61%
level
19%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
20%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Levski Chepintsi

Pirin Blagoevgrad II beat Levski Chepintsi 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rila in Rila.