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Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
FT
1 – 1
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
5/25/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 36Stadion selo Riltsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II33%
×Draw25%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.34
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.55

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 52 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.89
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.89
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw
58%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
75%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
67%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
15%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
74%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
39%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
15%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
79%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
46%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
44%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.34

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
33%
level
25%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
42%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Pirin Blagoevgrad II and CSKA 1948 Sofia III drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion selo Riltsi in Riltsi.