Pipinsried 0–0 Schwaben Augsburg: Result & Stats

Pipinsried

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Schwaben Augsburg

8/8/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 5Stadion an der Reichertshausener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pipinsried44%

×Draw24%

Schwaben Augsburg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PipinsriedExpected goals in this matchSchwaben Augsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.41

Pipinsried

1.70

Schwaben Augsburg

1.41

Pipinsried creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

2.08

creates per match

1.65

1.17

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Pipinsried

2.08

Schwaben Augsburg

1.65

allows per match

Pipinsried

1.17

Schwaben Augsburg

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pipinsried+0.00on par

Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pipinsried ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Pipinsried or draw

68%

Pipinsried or Schwaben Augsburg

76%

Draw or Schwaben Augsburg

56%

Winning margin

Pipinsried wins by 2+

23%

Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pipinsried 1+ goals

82%

Pipinsried 2+ goals

51%

Pipinsried 3+ goals

24%

Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals

76%

Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals

41%

Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pipinsried (draw refunded)

58%

Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pipinsried at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pipinsried attack 2.08 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.70

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Pipinsried defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pipinsried scores more

44%

level

24%

Schwaben Augsburg scores more

32%

Pipinsried at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pipinsried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff