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Pipinsried vs Kirchanschöring — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Pipinsried
Pipinsried
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kirchanschöring
Kirchanschöring
3/16/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 25Stadion an der Reichertshausener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Pipinsried47%
×Draw23%
Kirchanschöring30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pipinsried
1.81
Kirchanschöring
1.40

Pipinsried creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 66 away

creates per match

Pipinsried
2.08
Kirchanschöring
1.64

allows per match

Pipinsried
1.17
Kirchanschöring
1.55

finishing

Pipinsried+0.00on par
Kirchanschöring+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pipinsried ↓

Kirchanschöring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pipinsried or draw
70%
Pipinsried or Kirchanschöring
77%
Draw or Kirchanschöring
53%

Winning margin

Pipinsried wins by 2+
26%
Kirchanschöring wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pipinsried 1+ goals
84%
Pipinsried 2+ goals
54%
Pipinsried 3+ goals
27%
Kirchanschöring 1+ goals
75%
Kirchanschöring 2+ goals
41%
Kirchanschöring 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pipinsried (draw refunded)
61%
Kirchanschöring (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pipinsried at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

Kirchanschöring away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pipinsried attack 2.08 + Kirchanschöring defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kirchanschöring attack 1.64 + Pipinsried defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pipinsried scores more
47%
level
23%
Kirchanschöring scores more
30%

Pipinsried at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pipinsried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pipinsried vs Kirchanschöring

Pipinsried beat Kirchanschöring 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion an der Reichertshausener Straße in Pipinsried.