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Pinzgau Saalfelden vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Regionalliga - West 2018

Pinzgau Saalfelden
Pinzgau Saalfelden
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
10/28/2023Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 141508 SaalfeldenArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pinzgau Saalfelden50%
×Draw20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinzgau Saalfelden
2.24
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.72

Pinzgau Saalfelden creates 30% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 52 away

creates per match

Pinzgau Saalfelden
1.48
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.79

allows per match

Pinzgau Saalfelden
1.65
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
3.00

finishing

Pinzgau Saalfelden+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinzgau Saalfelden ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Pinzgau Saalfelden or draw
70%
Pinzgau Saalfelden or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
80%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
50%

Winning margin

Pinzgau Saalfelden wins by 2+
30%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pinzgau Saalfelden 1+ goals
89%
Pinzgau Saalfelden 2+ goals
65%
Pinzgau Saalfelden 3+ goals
38%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
82%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
51%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Pinzgau Saalfelden (draw refunded)
62%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinzgau Saalfelden at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.65 · 62 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.79, concedes 3.00 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinzgau Saalfelden attack 1.48 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.79 + Pinzgau Saalfelden defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pinzgau Saalfelden scores more
50%
level
20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
30%

Pinzgau Saalfelden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pinzgau Saalfelden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Pinzgau Saalfelden 1–1 Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Pinzgau Saalfelden and Rot-Weiß Rankweil drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - West on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at 1508 SaalfeldenArena in Saalfelden am Steinernen Meer.