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Pinzgau Saalfelden vs Hohenems — Regionalliga - West 2018

Pinzgau Saalfelden
Pinzgau Saalfelden
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hohenems
Hohenems
11/2/2024Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 141508 SaalfeldenArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Pinzgau Saalfelden34%
×Draw23%
Hohenems43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinzgau Saalfelden
1.58
Hohenems
1.81

Hohenems creates 15% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 95 away

creates per match

Pinzgau Saalfelden
1.48
Hohenems
1.97

allows per match

Pinzgau Saalfelden
1.65
Hohenems
1.69

finishing

Pinzgau Saalfelden+0.00on par
Hohenems+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinzgau Saalfelden ↓

Hohenems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pinzgau Saalfelden or draw
57%
Pinzgau Saalfelden or Hohenems
77%
Draw or Hohenems
66%

Winning margin

Pinzgau Saalfelden wins by 2+
16%
Hohenems wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pinzgau Saalfelden 1+ goals
79%
Pinzgau Saalfelden 2+ goals
47%
Pinzgau Saalfelden 3+ goals
21%
Hohenems 1+ goals
84%
Hohenems 2+ goals
54%
Hohenems 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Pinzgau Saalfelden (draw refunded)
44%
Hohenems (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinzgau Saalfelden at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.65 · 62 matches

Hohenems away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinzgau Saalfelden attack 1.48 + Hohenems defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hohenems attack 1.97 + Pinzgau Saalfelden defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pinzgau Saalfelden scores more
34%
level
23%
Hohenems scores more
43%

Hohenems at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hohenems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pinzgau Saalfelden vs Hohenems

Pinzgau Saalfelden beat Hohenems 2-1 in Regionalliga - West on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at 1508 SaalfeldenArena in Saalfelden am Steinernen Meer.