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Pinkafeld vs Klingenbach — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Pinkafeld
Pinkafeld
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Klingenbach
Klingenbach
8/15/2023Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 1Sportplatz Pinkafeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Pinkafeld48%
×Draw22%
Klingenbach29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinkafeld
1.90
Klingenbach
1.43

Pinkafeld creates 33% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 86 away

creates per match

Pinkafeld
2.01
Klingenbach
1.29

allows per match

Pinkafeld
1.56
Klingenbach
1.80

finishing

Pinkafeld+0.00on par
Klingenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinkafeld ↓

Klingenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pinkafeld or draw
71%
Pinkafeld or Klingenbach
78%
Draw or Klingenbach
52%

Winning margin

Pinkafeld wins by 2+
27%
Klingenbach wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pinkafeld 1+ goals
85%
Pinkafeld 2+ goals
56%
Pinkafeld 3+ goals
29%
Klingenbach 1+ goals
76%
Klingenbach 2+ goals
42%
Klingenbach 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pinkafeld (draw refunded)
62%
Klingenbach (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinkafeld at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.56 · 70 matches

Klingenbach away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.80 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinkafeld attack 2.01 + Klingenbach defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Klingenbach attack 1.29 + Pinkafeld defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pinkafeld scores more
48%
level
22%
Klingenbach scores more
29%

Pinkafeld at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pinkafeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Pinkafeld 1–2 Klingenbach

Klingenbach beat Pinkafeld 2-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on August 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Pinkafeld in Pinkafeld.