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Pinkafeld vs Bad Sauerbrunn — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Pinkafeld
Pinkafeld
FT
0 – 1
Bad Sauerbrunn
Bad Sauerbrunn
3/11/2023Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 17Sportplatz Pinkafeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Pinkafeld43%
×Draw23%
Bad Sauerbrunn34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinkafeld
1.79
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.56

Pinkafeld creates 15% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 84 away

creates per match

Pinkafeld
2.01
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.56

allows per match

Pinkafeld
1.56
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.57

finishing

Pinkafeld+0.00on par
Bad Sauerbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinkafeld ↓

Bad Sauerbrunn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pinkafeld or draw
66%
Pinkafeld or Bad Sauerbrunn
77%
Draw or Bad Sauerbrunn
57%

Winning margin

Pinkafeld wins by 2+
23%
Bad Sauerbrunn wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pinkafeld 1+ goals
83%
Pinkafeld 2+ goals
53%
Pinkafeld 3+ goals
26%
Bad Sauerbrunn 1+ goals
79%
Bad Sauerbrunn 2+ goals
46%
Bad Sauerbrunn 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pinkafeld (draw refunded)
56%
Bad Sauerbrunn (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinkafeld at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.56 · 70 matches

Bad Sauerbrunn away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinkafeld attack 2.01 + Bad Sauerbrunn defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Bad Sauerbrunn attack 1.56 + Pinkafeld defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pinkafeld scores more
43%
level
23%
Bad Sauerbrunn scores more
34%

Pinkafeld at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pinkafeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pinkafeld vs Bad Sauerbrunn

Bad Sauerbrunn beat Pinkafeld 1-0 in Landesliga - Burgenland on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Pinkafeld in Pinkafeld.