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Pinheiros vs Estrela do Norte — Capixaba B 2027

Pinheiros
Pinheiros
Preview
18:00
Estrela do Norte
Estrela do Norte
8/19/2026Capixaba BCapixaba B · Round 8
49%
Estrela do Norte
model favours
27%24%49%
1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pinheiros27%
×Draw24%
Estrela do Norte49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinheiros
1.25
Estrela do Norte
1.75

Estrela do Norte creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pinheiros
1.70
Estrela do Norte
2.40

allows per match

Pinheiros
1.10
Estrela do Norte
0.80

finishing

Pinheiros+0.00on par
Estrela do Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinheiros ↓

Estrela do Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pinheiros or draw
51%
Pinheiros or Estrela do Norte
76%
Draw or Estrela do Norte
73%

Winning margin

Pinheiros wins by 2+
11%
Estrela do Norte wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Pinheiros 1+ goals
71%
Pinheiros 2+ goals
36%
Pinheiros 3+ goals
13%
Estrela do Norte 1+ goals
83%
Estrela do Norte 2+ goals
52%
Estrela do Norte 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Pinheiros (draw refunded)
36%
Estrela do Norte (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinheiros at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Estrela do Norte away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinheiros attack 1.70 + Estrela do Norte defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Estrela do Norte attack 2.40 + Pinheiros defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pinheiros scores more
27%
level
24%
Estrela do Norte scores more
49%

Estrela do Norte at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Estrela do Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pinheiros
LLLLW
Norte
WWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pinheiros vs Estrela do Norte — Match Preview

Pinheiros face Estrela do Norte on August 19, 2026 in this Capixaba B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.