Estrela do Norte 5–0 Pinheiros: Result & Stats

Estrela do Norte

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pinheiros

7/22/2026

Capixaba B · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Estrela do Norte62%

×Draw22%

Pinheiros16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estrela do NorteExpected goals in this matchPinheiros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.80

Estrela do Norte

1.83

Pinheiros

0.80

Estrela do Norte creates 129% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

1.10

0.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Estrela do Norte

1.67

Pinheiros

1.10

allows per match

Estrela do Norte

0.50

Pinheiros

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estrela do Norte+0.00on par

Pinheiros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela do Norte ↓

Pinheiros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Estrela do Norte or draw

84%

Estrela do Norte or Pinheiros

78%

Draw or Pinheiros

38%

Winning margin

Estrela do Norte wins by 2+

36%

Pinheiros wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Estrela do Norte 1+ goals

84%

Estrela do Norte 2+ goals

54%

Estrela do Norte 3+ goals

28%

Pinheiros 1+ goals

55%

Pinheiros 2+ goals

19%

Pinheiros 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Estrela do Norte (draw refunded)

79%

Pinheiros (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela do Norte at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Pinheiros away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela do Norte attack 1.67 + Pinheiros defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Pinheiros attack 1.10 + Estrela do Norte defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Estrela do Norte scores more

62%

level

22%

Pinheiros scores more

16%

Estrela do Norte at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Estrela do Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff