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Pinheirense W vs Sao Francisco W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Pinheirense W
Pinheirense W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sao Francisco W
Sao Francisco W
8/15/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pinheirense W34%
×Draw19%
Sao Francisco W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinheirense W
2.11
Sao Francisco W
2.48

Sao Francisco W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pinheirense W
0.43
Sao Francisco W
0.53

allows per match

Pinheirense W
4.43
Sao Francisco W
3.80

finishing

Pinheirense W+0.00on par
Sao Francisco W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinheirense W ↓

Sao Francisco W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Pinheirense W or draw
53%
Pinheirense W or Sao Francisco W
81%
Draw or Sao Francisco W
66%

Winning margin

Pinheirense W wins by 2+
18%
Sao Francisco W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pinheirense W 1+ goals
88%
Pinheirense W 2+ goals
62%
Pinheirense W 3+ goals
35%
Sao Francisco W 1+ goals
92%
Sao Francisco W 2+ goals
70%
Sao Francisco W 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Pinheirense W (draw refunded)
42%
Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinheirense W at home — creates 0.43, concedes 4.43 · 7 matches

Sao Francisco W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinheirense W attack 0.43 + Sao Francisco W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.11

Sao Francisco W attack 0.53 + Pinheirense W defence 4.43 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pinheirense W scores more
34%
level
19%
Sao Francisco W scores more
47%

Sao Francisco W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sao Francisco W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pinheirense W vs Sao Francisco W

Sao Francisco W beat Pinheirense W 3-0 in Brasileiro Women on August 15, 2018.