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Pinhalnovense vs Vale Formoso — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pinhalnovense
Pinhalnovense
FT
5 – 0
Vale Formoso
Vale Formoso
9/8/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Santos Jorge (Pinhal Novo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pinhalnovense91%
×Draw6%
Vale Formoso2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinhalnovense
3.67
Vale Formoso
0.50

Pinhalnovense creates 634% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pinhalnovense
2.00
Vale Formoso
0.00

allows per match

Pinhalnovense
1.00
Vale Formoso
5.33

finishing

Pinhalnovense+0.00on par
Vale Formoso+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinhalnovense ↓

Vale Formoso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pinhalnovense or draw
98%
Pinhalnovense or Vale Formoso
94%
Draw or Vale Formoso
9%

Winning margin

Pinhalnovense wins by 2+
77%
Vale Formoso wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Pinhalnovense 1+ goals
97%
Pinhalnovense 2+ goals
87%
Pinhalnovense 3+ goals
68%
Vale Formoso 1+ goals
39%
Vale Formoso 2+ goals
9%
Vale Formoso 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Pinhalnovense (draw refunded)
98%
Vale Formoso (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinhalnovense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Vale Formoso away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinhalnovense attack 2.00 + Vale Formoso defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.67

Vale Formoso attack 0.00 + Pinhalnovense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Pinhalnovense scores more
91%
level
6%
Vale Formoso scores more
2%

Pinhalnovense at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Pinhalnovense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Pinhalnovense 5–0 Vale Formoso

Pinhalnovense beat Vale Formoso 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Campo Santos Jorge (Pinhal Novo).