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Pinhalnovense vs Moncarapachense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Pinhalnovense
Pinhalnovense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Moncarapachense
Moncarapachense
3/7/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 19Campo Santos Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Pinhalnovense37%
×Draw29%
Moncarapachense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinhalnovense
1.15
Moncarapachense
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Pinhalnovense
1.20
Moncarapachense
1.20

allows per match

Pinhalnovense
1.00
Moncarapachense
1.10

finishing

Pinhalnovense+0.00on par
Moncarapachense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinhalnovense ↓

Moncarapachense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pinhalnovense or draw
66%
Pinhalnovense or Moncarapachense
71%
Draw or Moncarapachense
63%

Winning margin

Pinhalnovense wins by 2+
15%
Moncarapachense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pinhalnovense 1+ goals
68%
Pinhalnovense 2+ goals
32%
Pinhalnovense 3+ goals
11%
Moncarapachense 1+ goals
67%
Moncarapachense 2+ goals
30%
Moncarapachense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pinhalnovense (draw refunded)
52%
Moncarapachense (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinhalnovense at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Moncarapachense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinhalnovense attack 1.20 + Moncarapachense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Moncarapachense attack 1.20 + Pinhalnovense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pinhalnovense scores more
37%
level
29%
Moncarapachense scores more
34%

Pinhalnovense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pinhalnovense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pinhalnovense vs Moncarapachense

Moncarapachense beat Pinhalnovense 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Santos Jorge in Pinhal Novo.