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Pilica Białobrzegi vs Znicz Biała Piska — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
FT
2 – 2
Znicz Biała Piska
Znicz Biała Piska
8/7/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi48%
×Draw21%
Znicz Biała Piska30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pilica Białobrzegi
2.04
Znicz Biała Piska
1.59

Pilica Białobrzegi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.54
Znicz Biała Piska
1.47

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.71
Znicz Biała Piska
2.55

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par
Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Znicz Biała Piska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw
70%
Pilica Białobrzegi or Znicz Biała Piska
79%
Draw or Znicz Biała Piska
52%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
28%
Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
87%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
60%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
33%
Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals
80%
Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals
47%
Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
61%
Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Znicz Biała Piska away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.04

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.47 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
48%
level
21%
Znicz Biała Piska scores more
30%

Pilica Białobrzegi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pilica Białobrzegi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pilica Białobrzegi 2–2 Znicz Biała Piska

Pilica Białobrzegi and Znicz Biała Piska drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białobrzegi.