Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pilica Białobrzegi vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
FT
2 – 1
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
9/25/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi55%
×Draw23%
Wissa Szczuczyn23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.88
Wissa Szczuczyn
1.14

Pilica Białobrzegi creates 65% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.54
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.71
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw
77%
Pilica Białobrzegi or Wissa Szczuczyn
77%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
45%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
31%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
85%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
56%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
29%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
68%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
32%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
70%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.88

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
55%
level
23%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
23%

Pilica Białobrzegi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pilica Białobrzegi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pilica Białobrzegi vs Wissa Szczuczyn

Pilica Białobrzegi beat Wissa Szczuczyn 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białobrzegi.