Pilica Białobrzegi 0–4 Unia Skierniewice

Pilica Białobrzegi

FT

0 – 4

Unia Skierniewice

11/4/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi31%

×Draw23%

Unia Skierniewice46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pilica BiałobrzegiExpected goals in this matchUnia Skierniewice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.76

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.42

Unia Skierniewice

1.76

Unia Skierniewice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 86 away

1.54

creates per match

1.81

1.71

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.54

Unia Skierniewice

1.81

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.71

Unia Skierniewice

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Unia Skierniewice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw

54%

Pilica Białobrzegi or Unia Skierniewice

77%

Draw or Unia Skierniewice

69%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+

14%

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals

76%

Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals

41%

Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals

17%

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals

83%

Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals

52%

Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)

41%

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Unia Skierniewice away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.81 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more

31%

level

23%

Unia Skierniewice scores more

46%

Unia Skierniewice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff