Pilica Białobrzegi 1–0 Sokół Ostróda

Pilica Białobrzegi

FT

1 – 0

Sokół Ostróda

4/8/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi44%

×Draw24%

Sokół Ostróda33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pilica BiałobrzegiExpected goals in this matchSokół Ostróda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.42

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.68

Sokół Ostróda

1.42

Pilica Białobrzegi creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

1.54

creates per match

1.12

1.71

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.54

Sokół Ostróda

1.12

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.71

Sokół Ostróda

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Sokół Ostróda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw

67%

Pilica Białobrzegi or Sokół Ostróda

76%

Draw or Sokół Ostróda

56%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+

23%

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals

81%

Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals

50%

Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals

24%

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

76%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

41%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)

57%

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.12 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more

44%

level

24%

Sokół Ostróda scores more

33%

Pilica Białobrzegi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pilica Białobrzegi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff