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Pilica Białobrzegi vs Łomża — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
FT
2 – 0
Łomża
Łomża
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi31%
×Draw23%
Łomża46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.39
Łomża
1.73

Łomża creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.54
Łomża
1.76

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.71
Łomża
1.24

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par
Łomża+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Łomża →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw
54%
Pilica Białobrzegi or Łomża
77%
Draw or Łomża
69%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
14%
Łomża wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
75%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
40%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
16%
Łomża 1+ goals
82%
Łomża 2+ goals
52%
Łomża 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
41%
Łomża (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Łomża away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Łomża defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Łomża attack 1.76 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
31%
level
23%
Łomża scores more
46%

Łomża at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Łomża will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pilica Białobrzegi 2–0 Łomża

Pilica Białobrzegi beat Łomża 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białobrzegi.