Pilica Białobrzegi 0–2 Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Pilica Białobrzegi

FT

0 – 2

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

8/27/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi40%

×Draw23%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pilica BiałobrzegiExpected goals in this matchLechia T. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.67

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.73

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 102 away

1.54

creates per match

1.63

1.71

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.54

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.63

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.71

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw

63%

Pilica Białobrzegi or Lechia T. Mazowiecki

77%

Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki

60%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+

21%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals

82%

Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals

52%

Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals

25%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

81%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

50%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)

52%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more

40%

level

23%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more

37%

Pilica Białobrzegi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pilica Białobrzegi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff