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Pikine vs Oslo — Ligue 1 2019

Pikine
Pikine
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oslo
Oslo
A. Diaw 45+1'
11/10/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Alassane Djigo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pikine44%
×Draw32%
Oslo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pikine
1.08
Oslo
0.72

Pikine creates 50% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pikine
0.89
Oslo
0.80

allows per match

Pikine
0.63
Oslo
1.27

finishing

Pikine+0.00on par
Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pikine ↓

Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Pikine or draw
76%
Pikine or Oslo
68%
Draw or Oslo
56%

Winning margin

Pikine wins by 2+
18%
Oslo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pikine 1+ goals
66%
Pikine 2+ goals
29%
Pikine 3+ goals
10%
Oslo 1+ goals
51%
Oslo 2+ goals
16%
Oslo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pikine (draw refunded)
64%
Oslo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pikine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.63 · 89 matches

Oslo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pikine attack 0.89 + Oslo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Oslo attack 0.80 + Pikine defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pikine scores more
44%
level
32%
Oslo scores more
24%

Pikine at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pikine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
A. Diaw

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pikine 1 – 0 Oslo

Pikine beat Oslo 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 10, 2024.

Goals: A. Diaw (45+1').

The match was played at Stade Alassane Djigo in Pikine.