Pikine 2–0 CNEPS Excellence: Result & Stats

Pikine

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CNEPS Excellence

8/6/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade Municipal De Mbao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Pikine51%

×Draw31%

CNEPS Excellence18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PikineExpected goals in this matchCNEPS Excellence

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.59

Pikine

1.19

CNEPS Excellence

0.59

Pikine creates 102% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 45 away

0.89

creates per match

0.56

0.63

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Pikine

0.89

CNEPS Excellence

0.56

allows per match

Pikine

0.63

CNEPS Excellence

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pikine+0.00on par

CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pikine ↓

CNEPS Excellence →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Pikine or draw

82%

Pikine or CNEPS Excellence

69%

Draw or CNEPS Excellence

49%

Winning margin

Pikine wins by 2+

23%

CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pikine 1+ goals

70%

Pikine 2+ goals

33%

Pikine 3+ goals

12%

CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals

45%

CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals

12%

CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Pikine (draw refunded)

73%

CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pikine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.63 · 89 matches

CNEPS Excellence away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pikine attack 0.89 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.19

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.56 + Pikine defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pikine scores more

51%

level

31%

CNEPS Excellence scores more

18%

Pikine at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pikine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff