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Pikine vs ASEC Ndiambour — Ligue 1 2019

Pikine
Pikine
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASEC Ndiambour
ASEC Ndiambour
3/6/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade Alassane Djigo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pikine50%
×Draw33%
ASEC Ndiambour18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pikine
1.11
ASEC Ndiambour
0.54

Pikine creates 106% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 32 away

creates per match

Pikine
0.89
ASEC Ndiambour
0.44

allows per match

Pikine
0.63
ASEC Ndiambour
1.34

finishing

Pikine+0.00on par
ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pikine ↓

ASEC Ndiambour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Pikine or draw
82%
Pikine or ASEC Ndiambour
67%
Draw or ASEC Ndiambour
50%

Winning margin

Pikine wins by 2+
21%
ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pikine 1+ goals
67%
Pikine 2+ goals
30%
Pikine 3+ goals
10%
ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals
42%
ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals
10%
ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Pikine (draw refunded)
73%
ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pikine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.63 · 89 matches

ASEC Ndiambour away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pikine attack 0.89 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.44 + Pikine defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pikine scores more
50%
level
33%
ASEC Ndiambour scores more
18%

Pikine at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pikine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pikine vs ASEC Ndiambour

Pikine beat ASEC Ndiambour 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Alassane Djigo in Pikine.